The House Edge Table
| Game | House Edge | Your EV per $100 Wagered |
|---|---|---|
| Blackjack (basic strategy) | 0.50% | -$0.50 |
| Baccarat (banker bet) | 1.06% | -$1.06 |
| European Roulette (even money) | 2.70% | -$2.70 |
| European Roulette (la partage) | 1.35% | -$1.35 |
| Craps (pass line) | 1.41% | -$1.41 |
| American Roulette | 5.26% | -$5.26 |
| 3-Card Poker (ante-play) | 3.37% | -$3.37 |
| Caribbean Stud | 5.22% | -$5.22 |
| Slots (typical) | 3-8% | -$3 to -$8 |
| Poker (winning player) | Positive | +$2 to +$10 |
The numbers for casino games are exact: they are built into the game rules and cannot change. The poker number is variable: it depends on your skill, your opponents' skill, and the rake.
Poker Is Player vs. Player
You play against people, not the house
In blackjack, every hand you play adds -$0.50 per $100 wagered to the casino's bottom line. Over 1,000 hands, you lose roughly $500 regardless of skill (basic strategy assumed).
In poker, the house takes a fixed percentage of each pot (rake) but does not compete for it. Your expected value depends entirely on how your skill compares to the other players at the table. If you are better than the average player by more than the rake costs, your expected value is positive.
Skill creates edge in poker
A winning NL50 player might earn 3-5 bb/100 after rake. At NL50 ($0.25/$0.50), that is $1.50-2.50 per 100 hands. Over 50,000 hands per month, that is $750-$1,250 per month. No casino game can produce positive expected value for any player, regardless of skill (excluding card counting in blackjack, which casinos actively prevent).
The rake is the cost of playing
Poker's equivalent of the house edge is rake. At NL50 6-max, effective rake after rakeback ranges from 3.0 bb/100 (CoinPoker) to 5.5 bb/100 (higher-rake rooms). That 2.5 bb/100 spread between rooms is itself the size of a solid winrate.
Use the rake calculator to compute your exact cost at any stake on any room.
The Math of a Casino Session vs. a Poker Session
Casino session: 4 hours of $10/hand blackjack
- 80 hands per hour x 4 hours = 320 hands
- Expected loss: 320 x $10 x 0.005 = $16
- Standard deviation: ~$200
- Probability of profit after 4 hours: ~46%
You will be very close to even most sessions. The house edge is small per hand but compounds over time.
Poker session: 4 hours of NL50 (online, 3 tables)
- 70 hands per hour x 3 tables x 4 hours = 840 hands
- Expected win at 4 bb/100: 840 x $0.50 x 0.04 = $16.80
- Standard deviation: ~$350
- Probability of profit after 4 hours: ~52%
The expected result is similar in magnitude but opposite in direction. The poker player expects to win; the blackjack player expects to lose. Both face significant variance in any single session.
Where Casino Games Beat Poker
Casino games have advantages that matter to most players:
- Simplicity. No study required. Learn basic strategy once and play indefinitely.
- Social experience. Casino table games are inherently social. Poker tables can be adversarial.
- Speed. Slots deliver an outcome every few seconds. Poker requires patience.
- Certainty. Casino odds are known and fixed. Poker win rates are uncertain and require huge sample sizes to confirm.
For entertainment value with known costs, casino games are a perfectly rational choice. The key is understanding the cost: time x bet size x house edge.
See the roulette odds guide for detailed probability tables.
The Verdict
Poker is the only casino game with positive expected value for skilled players, a consequence of the game's structure: player versus player, with a fixed fee to the house.
Whether poker is "the most profitable" depends on you. A player losing 5 bb/100 at NL50 has a worse expected value than a blackjack player using basic strategy. The edge comes from study and volume.
Start with the strategy hub to build fundamentals. Use the variance calculator to understand what your results mean. And use the rake calculator to ensure you are playing where the math works best.
See your true cost of playing poker vs. the house edge in casino games.
Open Rake Calculator