This is a compilation of probabilities, odds and likely scenarios for the FIFA World Cup 2018 in Russia. The World Cup statistics and predictions are based on the predictive power of the World Football Elo Ratings - the most accurate football rating system to date.

The following comprehensive World Cup statistics show the probabilities and odds for each team to become world champion, the chances to advance in their group, the possible match-ups for the round of 16, quarterfinal, semifinal and final and the relative strength of each team. How those predictions work is explained below.

## ELO Odds of Winning the FIFA World Cup 2018

Team | Elo | Probability of Winning the World Cup | Odds |
---|---|---|---|

Argentina | 1,985 | 6.37% | 1 : 14.7 |

Australia | 1,728 | 0.04% | 1 : 2,815.8 |

Belgium | 1,928 | 3.21% | 1 : 30.1 |

Brazil | 2,113 | 25.18% | 1 : 3.0 |

Colombia | 1,927 | 3.56% | 1 : 27.1 |

Costa Rica | 1,746 | 0.06% | 1 : 1,635.0 |

Croatia | 1,857 | 0.89% | 1 : 111.1 |

Denmark | 1,842 | 0.59% | 1 : 168.7 |

Egypt | 1,659 | 0.01% | 1 : 7,397.6 |

England | 1,933 | 3.15% | 1 : 30.7 |

France | 1,989 | 6.63% | 1 : 14.1 |

Germany | 2,109 | 24.26% | 1 : 3.1 |

Iceland | 1,813 | 0.36% | 1 : 274.7 |

Iran | 1,799 | 0.27% | 1 : 373.5 |

Japan | 1,707 | 0.02% | 1 : 4,243.4 |

Mexico | 1,856 | 0.86% | 1 : 115.5 |

Morocco | 1,691 | 0.02% | 1 : 4,981.7 |

Nigeria | 1,696 | 0.02% | 1 : 4,910.5 |

Panama | 1,671 | 0.02% | 1 : 4,604.8 |

Peru | 1,881 | 1.33% | 1 : 74.2 |

Poland | 1,843 | 0.86% | 1 : 115.2 |

Portugal | 1,995 | 7.85% | 1 : 11.7 |

Russia | 1,798 | 0.43% | 1 : 229.8 |

Saudi Arabia | 1,567 | 0.00% | 1 : 122,652.6 |

Senegal | 1,752 | 0.08% | 1 : 1,243.1 |

Serbia | 1,770 | 0.14% | 1 : 715.9 |

South Korea | 1,760 | 0.08% | 1 : 1,282.9 |

Spain | 2,031 | 11.01% | 1 : 8.1 |

Sweden | 1,818 | 0.28% | 1 : 359.3 |

Switzerland | 1,866 | 0.94% | 1 : 105.7 |

Tunisia | 1,624 | 0.01% | 1 : 15,722.1 |

Uruguay | 1,866 | 1.47% | 1 : 67.2 |

## Detailed Predictions and Odds for all Teams at the World Cup 2018

### Odds for Argentina at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1985*

#### Statistical expectation for Argentina

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 6.37% |

Final | 7.35% |

Semifinal | 15.94% |

Quarterfinal | 24.75% |

Round of 16 | 31.50% |

Exit in Group Stage | 14.09% |

### Argentinas Opponents in Group D

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group D*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Croatia | 1857 | 68% |

Iceland | 1813 | 73% |

Nigeria | 1696 | 84% |

### Argentinas Chances to Advance in Group D

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 62% | 86% |

2 | 24% | |

3 | 11% | 14% |

4 | 3% |

### Argentinas Way to the World Cup Final

#### Argentinas Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Argentina advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 86%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Peru | 36% | France | 58% | France | 34% |

Denmark | 29% | Peru | 23% | Peru | 32% |

France | 24% | Denmark | 15% | Denmark | 25% |

Australia | 12% | Australia | 4% | Australia | 10% |

#### Argentinas Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Argentina advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 54%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 42% | Portugal | 29% | Spain | 37% |

Portugal | 31% | Uruguay | 23% | Portugal | 30% |

Uruguay | 11% | Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 14% |

Russia | 10% | Russia | 11% | Russia | 10% |

Iran | 3% | Iran | 10% | Iran | 5% |

Egypt | 2% | Morocco | 3% | Egypt | 2% |

#### Argentinas Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Argentina advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 29.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Germany | 37% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Brazil | 19% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | Colombia | 11% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | Belgium | 8% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | England | 7% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 4% |

#### Argentinas Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Argentina advances to the Final (Probability: 13.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 37% | Germany | 38% | Brazil | 28% |

France | 11% | Spain | 16% | Germany | 13% |

Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 10% | Spain | 10% |

Spain | 8% | Colombia | 6% | France | 9% |

England | 6% | Brazil | 5% | Portugal | 9% |

Belgium | 5% | France | 4% | England | 5% |

Germany | 4% | Belgium | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

Colombia | 4% | England | 3% | Colombia | 4% |

### Odds for Australia at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1728*

#### Statistical expectation for Australia

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.04% |

Final | 0.15% |

Semifinal | 0.83% |

Quarterfinal | 3.28% |

Round of 16 | 12.20% |

Exit in Group Stage | 83.50% |

### Australias Opponents in Group C

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group C*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

France | 1989 | 18% |

Peru | 1881 | 29% |

Denmark | 1842 | 34% |

### Australias Chances to Advance in Group C

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 4% | 16% |

2 | 13% | |

3 | 25% | 84% |

4 | 59% |

### Australias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Australias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Australia advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 16%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Croatia | 34% | Argentina | 62% | Argentina | 53% |

Iceland | 28% | Croatia | 21% | Croatia | 24% |

Argentina | 25% | Iceland | 13% | Iceland | 17% |

Nigeria | 13% | Nigeria | 3% | Nigeria | 5% |

#### Australias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Australia advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 29% | Spain | 42% | Spain | 36% |

Uruguay | 23% | Portugal | 31% | Portugal | 30% |

Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 11% | Uruguay | 15% |

Russia | 11% | Russia | 10% | Russia | 10% |

Iran | 10% | Iran | 3% | Iran | 5% |

Morocco | 3% | Egypt | 2% | Egypt | 2% |

#### Australias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Australia advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 1.0%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Germany | 35% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Brazil | 21% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | Colombia | 11% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | Belgium | 8% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | England | 7% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Switzerland | 4% |

#### Australias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Australia advances to the Final (Probability: 0.2%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 34% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 25% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Germany | 14% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 10% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 7% | Portugal | 8% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | France | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 6% |

France | 3% | Germany | 4% | England | 4% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Belgium at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1928*

#### Statistical expectation for Belgium

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 3.21% |

Final | 5.00% |

Semifinal | 9.31% |

Quarterfinal | 30.72% |

Round of 16 | 37.96% |

Exit in Group Stage | 13.79% |

### Belgiums Opponents in Group G

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group G*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

England | 1933 | 49% |

Panama | 1671 | 81% |

Tunisia | 1624 | 85% |

### Belgiums Chances to Advance in Group G

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 47% | 86% |

2 | 40% | |

3 | 11% | 14% |

4 | 2% |

### Belgiums Way to the World Cup Final

#### Belgiums Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Belgium advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 86%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Poland | 40% | Colombia | 56% | Colombia | 46% |

Colombia | 38% | Poland | 28% | Poland | 34% |

Senegal | 13% | Senegal | 11% | Senegal | 12% |

Japan | 9% | Japan | 6% | Japan | 8% |

#### Belgiums Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Belgium advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 48%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 65% | Germany | 64% | Brazil | 41% |

Mexico | 11% | Switzerland | 10% | Germany | 31% |

Germany | 8% | Brazil | 8% | Mexico | 9% |

Switzerland | 6% | Serbia | 5% | Switzerland | 8% |

Sweden | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Sweden | 4% |

South Korea | 3% | Sweden | 3% | Serbia | 3% |

#### Belgiums Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Belgium advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 17.5%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | Spain | 20% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 18% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | France | 16% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | Argentina | 14% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Uruguay | 8% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Peru | 6% |

#### Belgiums Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Belgium advances to the Final (Probability: 8.2%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 36% | Brazil | 38% | Germany | 23% |

Spain | 15% | France | 11% | Brazil | 18% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 9% | Spain | 12% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 6% | Argentina | 8% |

Brazil | 5% | Germany | 4% | France | 7% |

France | 4% | Argentina | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

England | 3% | Colombia | 4% | England | 4% |

### Odds for Brazil at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 2113*

#### Statistical expectation for Brazil

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 25.18% |

Final | 14.92% |

Semifinal | 15.84% |

Quarterfinal | 16.90% |

Round of 16 | 22.82% |

Exit in Group Stage | 4.34% |

### Brazils Opponents in Group E

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group E*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Switzerland | 1866 | 81% |

Serbia | 1770 | 88% |

Costa Rica | 1746 | 89% |

### Brazils Chances to Advance in Group E

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 82% | 96% |

2 | 14% | |

3 | 4% | 4% |

4 | 1% |

### Brazils Way to the World Cup Final

#### Brazils Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Brazil advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 96%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Mexico | 45% | Germany | 80% | Mexico | 40% |

Sweden | 23% | Mexico | 10% | Germany | 24% |

South Korea | 18% | Sweden | 6% | Sweden | 20% |

Germany | 14% | South Korea | 3% | South Korea | 16% |

#### Brazils Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Brazil advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 73%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

England | 30% | Colombia | 35% | England | 28% |

Belgium | 28% | Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 27% |

Colombia | 20% | England | 15% | Colombia | 21% |

Poland | 16% | Poland | 14% | Poland | 15% |

Senegal | 4% | Panama | 6% | Senegal | 4% |

Japan | 2% | Senegal | 4% | Japan | 2% |

#### Brazils Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Brazil advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 55.9%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | France | 21% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 18% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | Spain | 16% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | Argentina | 10% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Uruguay | 9% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Peru | 6% |

#### Brazils Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Brazil advances to the Final (Probability: 40.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 36% | France | 17% | Germany | 34% |

Spain | 15% | Portugal | 13% | Spain | 15% |

Argentina | 10% | Spain | 12% | Argentina | 10% |

Portugal | 9% | England | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | Belgium | 8% | Colombia | 6% |

France | 4% | Germany | 7% | France | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 6% | Belgium | 4% |

England | 3% | Colombia | 5% | England | 3% |

### Odds for Colombia at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1927*

#### Statistical expectation for Colombia

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 3.56% |

Final | 5.57% |

Semifinal | 10.70% |

Quarterfinal | 34.69% |

Round of 16 | 27.27% |

Exit in Group Stage | 18.21% |

### Colombias Opponents in Group H

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group H*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Poland | 1843 | 62% |

Senegal | 1752 | 73% |

Japan | 1707 | 78% |

### Colombias Chances to Advance in Group H

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 56% | 82% |

2 | 26% | |

3 | 13% | 18% |

4 | 5% |

### Colombias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Colombias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Colombia advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 82%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Belgium | 35% | England | 48% | Belgium | 40% |

England | 26% | Belgium | 47% | England | 35% |

Panama | 23% | Panama | 3% | Panama | 15% |

Tunisia | 16% | Tunisia | 2% | Tunisia | 10% |

#### Colombias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Colombia advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 55%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 64% | Brazil | 65% | Germany | 44% |

Switzerland | 10% | Mexico | 11% | Brazil | 29% |

Brazil | 8% | Germany | 8% | Switzerland | 9% |

Serbia | 5% | Switzerland | 6% | Mexico | 7% |

Mexico | 5% | Sweden | 5% | Serbia | 4% |

Sweden | 3% | South Korea | 3% | Sweden | 4% |

#### Colombias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Colombia advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 19.8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | Spain | 23% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | Portugal | 18% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | Argentina | 17% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | France | 13% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Uruguay | 6% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Peru | 6% |

#### Colombias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Colombia advances to the Final (Probability: 9.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 37% | Germany | 36% | Brazil | 25% |

France | 11% | Spain | 15% | Germany | 16% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 10% |

Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Brazil | 5% | France | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | France | 4% | Argentina | 6% |

Germany | 4% | Belgium | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | England | 3% | England | 4% |

### Odds for Costa Rica at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1746*

#### Statistical expectation for Costa Rica

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.06% |

Final | 0.24% |

Semifinal | 0.95% |

Quarterfinal | 2.70% |

Round of 16 | 17.21% |

Exit in Group Stage | 78.83% |

### Costa Ricas Opponents in Group E

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group E*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Brazil | 2113 | 11% |

Switzerland | 1866 | 33% |

Serbia | 1770 | 47% |

### Costa Ricas Chances to Advance in Group E

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 3% | 21% |

2 | 18% | |

3 | 33% | 79% |

4 | 46% |

### Costa Ricas Way to the World Cup Final

#### Costa Ricas Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Costa Rica advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 21%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Mexico | 45% | Germany | 80% | Germany | 72% |

Sweden | 23% | Mexico | 10% | Mexico | 15% |

South Korea | 18% | Sweden | 6% | Sweden | 9% |

Germany | 14% | South Korea | 3% | South Korea | 5% |

#### Costa Ricas Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Costa Rica advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

England | 30% | Colombia | 35% | Colombia | 31% |

Belgium | 28% | Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 22% |

Colombia | 20% | England | 15% | England | 19% |

Poland | 16% | Poland | 14% | Poland | 15% |

Senegal | 4% | Panama | 6% | Panama | 4% |

Japan | 2% | Senegal | 4% | Senegal | 4% |

#### Costa Ricas Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Costa Rica advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 1.3%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | Spain | 24% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Argentina | 18% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | Portugal | 18% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | France | 11% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Peru | 6% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Uruguay | 6% |

#### Costa Ricas Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Costa Rica advances to the Final (Probability: 0.3%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 34% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 28% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Germany | 12% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 9% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 7% | France | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | Portugal | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 5% |

France | 3% | Germany | 4% | England | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

### Odds for Croatia at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1857*

#### Statistical expectation for Croatia

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.89% |

Final | 1.95% |

Semifinal | 6.46% |

Quarterfinal | 14.20% |

Round of 16 | 33.43% |

Exit in Group Stage | 43.07% |

### Croatias Opponents in Group D

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group D*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Argentina | 1985 | 32% |

Iceland | 1813 | 56% |

Nigeria | 1696 | 72% |

### Croatias Chances to Advance in Group D

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 21% | 57% |

2 | 36% | |

3 | 29% | 43% |

4 | 14% |

### Croatias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Croatias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Croatia advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 57%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Peru | 36% | France | 58% | France | 45% |

Denmark | 29% | Peru | 23% | Peru | 28% |

France | 24% | Denmark | 15% | Denmark | 20% |

Australia | 12% | Australia | 4% | Australia | 7% |

#### Croatias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Croatia advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 23%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 42% | Portugal | 29% | Spain | 31% |

Portugal | 31% | Uruguay | 23% | Portugal | 30% |

Uruguay | 11% | Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 18% |

Russia | 10% | Russia | 11% | Russia | 10% |

Iran | 3% | Iran | 10% | Iran | 7% |

Egypt | 2% | Morocco | 3% | Morocco | 2% |

#### Croatias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Croatia advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 9.3%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Brazil | 33% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Germany | 23% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | Colombia | 9% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | Belgium | 9% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | England | 9% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Croatias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Croatia advances to the Final (Probability: 2.8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 35% | Germany | 23% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Brazil | 17% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 12% |

Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | France | 6% |

Germany | 4% | France | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Denmark at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1842*

#### Statistical expectation for Denmark

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.59% |

Final | 1.38% |

Semifinal | 4.81% |

Quarterfinal | 11.67% |

Round of 16 | 25.31% |

Exit in Group Stage | 56.24% |

### Denmarks Opponents in Group C

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group C*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

France | 1989 | 30% |

Peru | 1881 | 44% |

Australia | 1728 | 66% |

### Denmarks Chances to Advance in Group C

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 15% | 44% |

2 | 28% | |

3 | 34% | 56% |

4 | 22% |

### Denmarks Way to the World Cup Final

#### Denmarks Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Denmark advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 44%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Croatia | 34% | Argentina | 62% | Argentina | 49% |

Iceland | 28% | Croatia | 21% | Croatia | 26% |

Argentina | 25% | Iceland | 13% | Iceland | 19% |

Nigeria | 13% | Nigeria | 3% | Nigeria | 6% |

#### Denmarks Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Denmark advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 18%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 29% | Spain | 42% | Spain | 34% |

Uruguay | 23% | Portugal | 31% | Portugal | 30% |

Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 11% | Uruguay | 16% |

Russia | 11% | Russia | 10% | Russia | 10% |

Iran | 10% | Iran | 3% | Iran | 6% |

Morocco | 3% | Egypt | 2% | Egypt | 2% |

#### Denmarks Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Denmark advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 6.8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Germany | 31% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Brazil | 25% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | Colombia | 10% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | Belgium | 9% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | England | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Denmarks Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Denmark advances to the Final (Probability: 2.0%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 35% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 22% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Germany | 17% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 10% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | France | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 7% |

France | 4% | Germany | 4% | Colombia | 4% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Egypt at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1659*

#### Statistical expectation for Egypt

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.01% |

Final | 0.08% |

Semifinal | 0.63% |

Quarterfinal | 3.08% |

Round of 16 | 25.18% |

Exit in Group Stage | 71.01% |

### Egypts Opponents in Group A

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group A*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Uruguay | 1866 | 23% |

Russia | 1798 | 31% |

Saudi Arabia | 1567 | 63% |

### Egypts Chances to Advance in Group A

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 8% | 29% |

2 | 21% | |

3 | 41% | 71% |

4 | 30% |

### Egypts Way to the World Cup Final

#### Egypts Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Egypt advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 29%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 40% | Spain | 53% | Spain | 46% |

Spain | 29% | Portugal | 40% | Portugal | 40% |

Iran | 21% | Iran | 5% | Iran | 10% |

Morocco | 10% | Morocco | 1% | Morocco | 4% |

#### Egypts Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Egypt advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 39% | Argentina | 40% | Argentina | 30% |

Argentina | 14% | Peru | 16% | France | 24% |

Croatia | 13% | France | 14% | Peru | 14% |

Peru | 12% | Denmark | 11% | Croatia | 11% |

Iceland | 10% | Croatia | 10% | Denmark | 10% |

Denmark | 7% | Iceland | 6% | Iceland | 7% |

#### Egypts Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Egypt advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 0.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Germany | 32% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Brazil | 24% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | Colombia | 11% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | Belgium | 8% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | England | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Egypts Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Egypt advances to the Final (Probability: 0.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 34% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 24% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Germany | 16% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 10% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 7% | Portugal | 8% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | France | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 6% |

France | 3% | Germany | 4% | Colombia | 4% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for England at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1933*

#### Statistical expectation for England

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 3.15% |

Final | 4.73% |

Semifinal | 8.61% |

Quarterfinal | 28.25% |

Round of 16 | 42.12% |

Exit in Group Stage | 13.14% |

### Englands Opponents in Group G

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group G*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Belgium | 1928 | 51% |

Panama | 1671 | 82% |

Tunisia | 1624 | 86% |

### Englands Chances to Advance in Group G

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 48% | 87% |

2 | 38% | |

3 | 11% | 13% |

4 | 2% |

### Englands Way to the World Cup Final

#### Englands Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If England advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 87%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Poland | 40% | Colombia | 56% | Colombia | 44% |

Colombia | 38% | Poland | 28% | Poland | 35% |

Senegal | 13% | Senegal | 11% | Senegal | 12% |

Japan | 9% | Japan | 6% | Japan | 8% |

#### Englands Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If England advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 45%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 65% | Germany | 64% | Brazil | 46% |

Mexico | 11% | Switzerland | 10% | Germany | 27% |

Germany | 8% | Brazil | 8% | Mexico | 9% |

Switzerland | 6% | Serbia | 5% | Switzerland | 7% |

Sweden | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Sweden | 4% |

South Korea | 3% | Sweden | 3% | Serbia | 3% |

#### Englands Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If England advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 16.5%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | Spain | 19% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 18% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | France | 18% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | Argentina | 13% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Uruguay | 8% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Peru | 6% |

#### Englands Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If England advances to the Final (Probability: 7.9%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 35% | Brazil | 38% | Germany | 25% |

Spain | 15% | France | 11% | Brazil | 15% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 9% | Spain | 12% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 8% |

Brazil | 5% | Germany | 4% | France | 6% |

France | 4% | Argentina | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Colombia | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for France at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1989*

#### Statistical expectation for France

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 6.63% |

Final | 7.54% |

Semifinal | 16.30% |

Quarterfinal | 22.23% |

Round of 16 | 30.18% |

Exit in Group Stage | 17.11% |

### Frances Opponents in Group C

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group C*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Peru | 1881 | 65% |

Denmark | 1842 | 70% |

Australia | 1728 | 82% |

### Frances Chances to Advance in Group C

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 58% | 83% |

2 | 25% | |

3 | 13% | 17% |

4 | 4% |

### Frances Way to the World Cup Final

#### Frances Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If France advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 83%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Croatia | 34% | Argentina | 62% | Argentina | 36% |

Iceland | 28% | Croatia | 21% | Croatia | 30% |

Argentina | 25% | Iceland | 13% | Iceland | 24% |

Nigeria | 13% | Nigeria | 3% | Nigeria | 10% |

#### Frances Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If France advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 53%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 29% | Spain | 42% | Portugal | 29% |

Uruguay | 23% | Portugal | 31% | Spain | 27% |

Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 11% | Uruguay | 20% |

Russia | 11% | Russia | 10% | Russia | 11% |

Iran | 10% | Iran | 3% | Iran | 8% |

Morocco | 3% | Egypt | 2% | Morocco | 3% |

#### Frances Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If France advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 30.5%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Brazil | 39% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Germany | 17% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | England | 10% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | Belgium | 9% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | Colombia | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 4% |

#### Frances Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If France advances to the Final (Probability: 14.2%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 36% | Brazil | 40% | Germany | 28% |

Spain | 15% | Portugal | 9% | Spain | 13% |

Argentina | 10% | Spain | 8% | Brazil | 13% |

Portugal | 9% | England | 6% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 9% |

Brazil | 5% | Germany | 5% | Colombia | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

England | 3% | Colombia | 4% | England | 3% |

### Odds for Germany at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 2109*

#### Statistical expectation for Germany

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 24.26% |

Final | 14.29% |

Semifinal | 17.08% |

Quarterfinal | 16.03% |

Round of 16 | 22.97% |

Exit in Group Stage | 5.37% |

### Germanys Opponents in Group F

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group F*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Mexico | 1856 | 81% |

Sweden | 1818 | 84% |

South Korea | 1760 | 88% |

### Germanys Chances to Advance in Group F

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 80% | 95% |

2 | 14% | |

3 | 5% | 5% |

4 | 1% |

### Germanys Way to the World Cup Final

#### Germanys Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Germany advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 95%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Switzerland | 38% | Brazil | 82% | Switzerland | 34% |

Serbia | 29% | Switzerland | 12% | Serbia | 26% |

Costa Rica | 18% | Serbia | 4% | Brazil | 24% |

Brazil | 14% | Costa Rica | 3% | Costa Rica | 16% |

#### Germanys Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Germany advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 72%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Colombia | 35% | England | 30% | Colombia | 33% |

Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 28% | Belgium | 21% |

England | 15% | Colombia | 20% | England | 17% |

Poland | 14% | Poland | 16% | Poland | 15% |

Panama | 6% | Senegal | 4% | Panama | 5% |

Senegal | 4% | Japan | 2% | Senegal | 4% |

#### Germanys Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Germany advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 55.6%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | Spain | 26% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 20% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | France | 9% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% |

#### Germanys Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Germany advances to the Final (Probability: 38.6%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 37% | Spain | 22% | Brazil | 35% |

France | 11% | Argentina | 15% | France | 11% |

Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 13% | Portugal | 9% |

Spain | 8% | Colombia | 9% | Spain | 9% |

England | 6% | Brazil | 7% | England | 5% |

Belgium | 5% | France | 5% | Belgium | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 5% |

Colombia | 4% | England | 4% | Colombia | 4% |

### Odds for Iceland at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1813*

#### Statistical expectation for Iceland

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.36% |

Final | 1.00% |

Semifinal | 3.89% |

Quarterfinal | 9.95% |

Round of 16 | 26.82% |

Exit in Group Stage | 57.97% |

### Icelands Opponents in Group D

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group D*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Argentina | 1985 | 27% |

Croatia | 1857 | 44% |

Nigeria | 1696 | 66% |

### Icelands Chances to Advance in Group D

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 13% | 42% |

2 | 29% | |

3 | 35% | 58% |

4 | 23% |

### Icelands Way to the World Cup Final

#### Icelands Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Iceland advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 42%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Peru | 36% | France | 58% | France | 47% |

Denmark | 29% | Peru | 23% | Peru | 27% |

France | 24% | Denmark | 15% | Denmark | 20% |

Australia | 12% | Australia | 4% | Australia | 6% |

#### Icelands Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Iceland advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 15%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 42% | Portugal | 29% | Portugal | 30% |

Portugal | 31% | Uruguay | 23% | Spain | 29% |

Uruguay | 11% | Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 19% |

Russia | 10% | Russia | 11% | Russia | 11% |

Iran | 3% | Iran | 10% | Iran | 7% |

Egypt | 2% | Morocco | 3% | Morocco | 2% |

#### Icelands Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Iceland advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 5.3%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Brazil | 35% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Germany | 20% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 9% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | England | 9% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | Colombia | 9% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Icelands Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Iceland advances to the Final (Probability: 1.4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Germany | 24% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Brazil | 15% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 12% |

Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | France | 6% |

Germany | 4% | France | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Iran at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1799*

#### Statistical expectation for Iran

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.27% |

Final | 0.79% |

Semifinal | 3.27% |

Quarterfinal | 8.39% |

Round of 16 | 10.58% |

Exit in Group Stage | 76.70% |

### Irans Opponents in Group B

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group B*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Spain | 2031 | 21% |

Portugal | 1995 | 24% |

Morocco | 1691 | 65% |

### Irans Chances to Advance in Group B

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 5% | 23% |

2 | 18% | |

3 | 47% | 77% |

4 | 29% |

### Irans Way to the World Cup Final

#### Irans Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Iran advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 23%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Russia | 41% | Uruguay | 57% | Uruguay | 52% |

Uruguay | 34% | Russia | 33% | Russia | 35% |

Egypt | 18% | Egypt | 8% | Egypt | 10% |

Saudi Arabia | 7% | Saudi Arabia | 2% | Saudi Arabia | 3% |

#### Irans Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Iran advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 13%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Argentina | 40% | France | 39% | France | 33% |

Peru | 16% | Argentina | 14% | Argentina | 20% |

France | 14% | Croatia | 13% | Peru | 13% |

Denmark | 11% | Peru | 12% | Croatia | 13% |

Croatia | 10% | Iceland | 10% | Iceland | 9% |

Iceland | 6% | Denmark | 7% | Denmark | 8% |

#### Irans Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Iran advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 4.3%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Brazil | 40% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Germany | 15% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | England | 10% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | Belgium | 10% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | Colombia | 8% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Mexico | 4% |

#### Irans Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Iran advances to the Final (Probability: 1.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Germany | 28% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Spain | 13% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Brazil | 11% |

Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 9% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Germany | 4% | France | 3% | France | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Japan at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1707*

#### Statistical expectation for Japan

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.02% |

Final | 0.11% |

Semifinal | 0.53% |

Quarterfinal | 3.57% |

Round of 16 | 18.30% |

Exit in Group Stage | 77.47% |

### Japans Opponents in Group H

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group H*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Colombia | 1927 | 22% |

Poland | 1843 | 31% |

Senegal | 1752 | 44% |

### Japans Chances to Advance in Group H

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 6% | 23% |

2 | 16% | |

3 | 29% | 77% |

4 | 49% |

### Japans Way to the World Cup Final

#### Japans Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Japan advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 23%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Belgium | 35% | England | 48% | Belgium | 42% |

England | 26% | Belgium | 47% | England | 39% |

Panama | 23% | Panama | 3% | Panama | 11% |

Tunisia | 16% | Tunisia | 2% | Tunisia | 8% |

#### Japans Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Japan advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 64% | Brazil | 65% | Germany | 37% |

Switzerland | 10% | Mexico | 11% | Brazil | 36% |

Brazil | 8% | Germany | 8% | Switzerland | 8% |

Serbia | 5% | Switzerland | 6% | Mexico | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Sweden | 5% | Sweden | 4% |

Sweden | 3% | South Korea | 3% | Serbia | 3% |

#### Japans Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Japan advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 0.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | Spain | 21% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | Portugal | 18% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | Argentina | 15% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | France | 15% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Uruguay | 7% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Peru | 6% |

#### Japans Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Japan advances to the Final (Probability: 0.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Brazil | 20% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Germany | 19% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 11% |

Spain | 7% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | France | 7% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | Argentina | 7% |

Germany | 4% | France | 3% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Mexico at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1856*

#### Statistical expectation for Mexico

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.86% |

Final | 1.89% |

Semifinal | 4.55% |

Quarterfinal | 9.13% |

Round of 16 | 31.82% |

Exit in Group Stage | 51.75% |

### Mexicos Opponents in Group F

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group F*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Germany | 2109 | 19% |

Sweden | 1818 | 55% |

South Korea | 1760 | 63% |

### Mexicos Chances to Advance in Group F

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 10% | 48% |

2 | 38% | |

3 | 31% | 52% |

4 | 21% |

### Mexicos Way to the World Cup Final

#### Mexicos Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Mexico advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 48%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Switzerland | 38% | Brazil | 82% | Brazil | 69% |

Serbia | 29% | Switzerland | 12% | Switzerland | 17% |

Costa Rica | 18% | Serbia | 4% | Serbia | 8% |

Brazil | 14% | Costa Rica | 3% | Costa Rica | 6% |

#### Mexicos Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Mexico advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 16%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Colombia | 35% | England | 30% | Belgium | 26% |

Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 28% | England | 25% |

England | 15% | Colombia | 20% | Colombia | 24% |

Poland | 14% | Poland | 16% | Poland | 15% |

Panama | 6% | Senegal | 4% | Senegal | 4% |

Senegal | 4% | Japan | 2% | Panama | 2% |

#### Mexicos Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Mexico advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 7.3%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | Spain | 19% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | France | 18% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | Argentina | 13% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Uruguay | 8% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Peru | 6% |

#### Mexicos Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Mexico advances to the Final (Probability: 2.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 35% | Germany | 25% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Brazil | 14% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 12% |

Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | France | 6% |

Germany | 4% | France | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Morocco at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1691*

#### Statistical expectation for Morocco

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.02% |

Final | 0.11% |

Semifinal | 0.70% |

Quarterfinal | 2.91% |

Round of 16 | 4.50% |

Exit in Group Stage | 91.75% |

### Moroccos Opponents in Group B

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group B*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Spain | 2031 | 12% |

Portugal | 1995 | 15% |

Iran | 1799 | 35% |

### Moroccos Chances to Advance in Group B

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 1% | 8% |

2 | 7% | |

3 | 26% | 92% |

4 | 65% |

### Moroccos Way to the World Cup Final

#### Moroccos Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Morocco advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Russia | 41% | Uruguay | 57% | Uruguay | 54% |

Uruguay | 34% | Russia | 33% | Russia | 34% |

Egypt | 18% | Egypt | 8% | Egypt | 9% |

Saudi Arabia | 7% | Saudi Arabia | 2% | Saudi Arabia | 3% |

#### Moroccos Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Morocco advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Argentina | 40% | France | 39% | France | 36% |

Peru | 16% | Argentina | 14% | Argentina | 18% |

France | 14% | Croatia | 13% | Croatia | 13% |

Denmark | 11% | Peru | 12% | Peru | 13% |

Croatia | 10% | Iceland | 10% | Iceland | 9% |

Iceland | 6% | Denmark | 7% | Denmark | 8% |

#### Moroccos Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Morocco advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 0.8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Brazil | 44% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Germany | 11% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | England | 10% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | Belgium | 10% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | Colombia | 8% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Mexico | 5% |

#### Moroccos Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Morocco advances to the Final (Probability: 0.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Germany | 30% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Spain | 13% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Argentina | 9% |

Spain | 7% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Brazil | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Germany | 4% | France | 3% | France | 4% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Nigeria at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1696*

#### Statistical expectation for Nigeria

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.02% |

Final | 0.11% |

Semifinal | 0.68% |

Quarterfinal | 2.74% |

Round of 16 | 11.59% |

Exit in Group Stage | 84.87% |

### Nigerias Opponents in Group D

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group D*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Argentina | 1985 | 16% |

Croatia | 1857 | 28% |

Iceland | 1813 | 34% |

### Nigerias Chances to Advance in Group D

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 3% | 15% |

2 | 12% | |

3 | 25% | 85% |

4 | 60% |

### Nigerias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Nigerias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Nigeria advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 15%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Peru | 36% | France | 58% | France | 51% |

Denmark | 29% | Peru | 23% | Peru | 26% |

France | 24% | Denmark | 15% | Denmark | 18% |

Australia | 12% | Australia | 4% | Australia | 5% |

#### Nigerias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Nigeria advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 42% | Portugal | 29% | Portugal | 29% |

Portugal | 31% | Uruguay | 23% | Spain | 27% |

Uruguay | 11% | Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 20% |

Russia | 10% | Russia | 11% | Russia | 11% |

Iran | 3% | Iran | 10% | Iran | 8% |

Egypt | 2% | Morocco | 3% | Morocco | 3% |

#### Nigerias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Nigeria advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 0.8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Brazil | 41% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Germany | 15% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | England | 10% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | Belgium | 10% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | Colombia | 8% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Mexico | 4% |

#### Nigerias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Nigeria advances to the Final (Probability: 0.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Germany | 28% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Spain | 13% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Brazil | 11% |

Spain | 7% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 9% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Germany | 4% | France | 3% | France | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Panama at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1671*

#### Statistical expectation for Panama

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.02% |

Final | 0.13% |

Semifinal | 0.73% |

Quarterfinal | 5.58% |

Round of 16 | 10.04% |

Exit in Group Stage | 83.51% |

### Panamas Opponents in Group G

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group G*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

England | 1933 | 18% |

Belgium | 1928 | 19% |

Tunisia | 1624 | 57% |

### Panamas Chances to Advance in Group G

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 3% | 16% |

2 | 13% | |

3 | 44% | 84% |

4 | 40% |

### Panamas Way to the World Cup Final

#### Panamas Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Panama advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 16%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Poland | 40% | Colombia | 56% | Colombia | 54% |

Colombia | 38% | Poland | 28% | Poland | 29% |

Senegal | 13% | Senegal | 11% | Senegal | 11% |

Japan | 9% | Japan | 6% | Japan | 6% |

#### Panamas Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Panama advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 6%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 65% | Germany | 64% | Germany | 56% |

Mexico | 11% | Switzerland | 10% | Brazil | 16% |

Germany | 8% | Brazil | 8% | Switzerland | 10% |

Switzerland | 6% | Serbia | 5% | Mexico | 6% |

Sweden | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Serbia | 5% |

South Korea | 3% | Sweden | 3% | Sweden | 3% |

#### Panamas Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Panama advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 0.9%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | Spain | 26% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Argentina | 20% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | Portugal | 18% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | France | 9% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Peru | 6% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Uruguay | 5% |

#### Panamas Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Panama advances to the Final (Probability: 0.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 34% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 31% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | France | 10% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Germany | 8% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 7% | Spain | 8% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | Portugal | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | England | 5% |

France | 3% | Germany | 4% | Argentina | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

### Odds for Peru at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1881*

#### Statistical expectation for Peru

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 1.33% |

Final | 2.57% |

Semifinal | 7.78% |

Quarterfinal | 16.21% |

Round of 16 | 28.98% |

Exit in Group Stage | 43.14% |

### Perus Opponents in Group C

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group C*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

France | 1989 | 35% |

Denmark | 1842 | 56% |

Australia | 1728 | 71% |

### Perus Chances to Advance in Group C

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 23% | 57% |

2 | 34% | |

3 | 28% | 43% |

4 | 15% |

### Perus Way to the World Cup Final

#### Perus Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Peru advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 57%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Croatia | 34% | Argentina | 62% | Argentina | 48% |

Iceland | 28% | Croatia | 21% | Croatia | 26% |

Argentina | 25% | Iceland | 13% | Iceland | 19% |

Nigeria | 13% | Nigeria | 3% | Nigeria | 7% |

#### Perus Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Peru advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 28%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 29% | Spain | 42% | Spain | 33% |

Uruguay | 23% | Portugal | 31% | Portugal | 30% |

Spain | 22% | Uruguay | 11% | Uruguay | 16% |

Russia | 11% | Russia | 10% | Russia | 10% |

Iran | 10% | Iran | 3% | Iran | 6% |

Morocco | 3% | Egypt | 2% | Egypt | 2% |

#### Perus Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Peru advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 11.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Germany | 29% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Brazil | 27% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | Colombia | 10% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | Belgium | 9% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | England | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Perus Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Peru advances to the Final (Probability: 3.9%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 35% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 21% |

Spain | 15% | France | 11% | Germany | 19% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 11% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | France | 7% |

Brazil | 5% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 7% |

France | 4% | Germany | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Poland at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1843*

#### Statistical expectation for Poland

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.86% |

Final | 2.04% |

Semifinal | 5.27% |

Quarterfinal | 21.87% |

Round of 16 | 32.42% |

Exit in Group Stage | 37.55% |

### Polands Opponents in Group H

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group H*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Colombia | 1927 | 38% |

Senegal | 1752 | 63% |

Japan | 1707 | 69% |

### Polands Chances to Advance in Group H

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 28% | 62% |

2 | 35% | |

3 | 24% | 38% |

4 | 13% |

### Polands Way to the World Cup Final

#### Polands Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Poland advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 62%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Belgium | 35% | England | 48% | Belgium | 42% |

England | 26% | Belgium | 47% | England | 39% |

Panama | 23% | Panama | 3% | Panama | 11% |

Tunisia | 16% | Tunisia | 2% | Tunisia | 8% |

#### Polands Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Poland advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 30%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 64% | Brazil | 65% | Brazil | 37% |

Switzerland | 10% | Mexico | 11% | Germany | 35% |

Brazil | 8% | Germany | 8% | Mexico | 8% |

Serbia | 5% | Switzerland | 6% | Switzerland | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Sweden | 5% | Sweden | 4% |

Sweden | 3% | South Korea | 3% | Serbia | 3% |

#### Polands Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Poland advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 8.2%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | Spain | 21% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | Portugal | 18% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | France | 15% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | Argentina | 15% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Uruguay | 7% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Peru | 6% |

#### Polands Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Poland advances to the Final (Probability: 2.9%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 35% | Germany | 21% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Brazil | 19% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 11% |

Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 7% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | France | 7% |

Germany | 4% | France | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Portugal at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1995*

#### Statistical expectation for Portugal

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 7.85% |

Final | 9.16% |

Semifinal | 18.85% |

Quarterfinal | 23.82% |

Round of 16 | 21.84% |

Exit in Group Stage | 18.48% |

### Portugals Opponents in Group B

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group B*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Spain | 2031 | 45% |

Iran | 1799 | 76% |

Morocco | 1691 | 85% |

### Portugals Chances to Advance in Group B

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 40% | 82% |

2 | 41% | |

3 | 15% | 18% |

4 | 3% |

### Portugals Way to the World Cup Final

#### Portugals Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Portugal advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 82%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Russia | 41% | Uruguay | 57% | Uruguay | 45% |

Uruguay | 34% | Russia | 33% | Russia | 37% |

Egypt | 18% | Egypt | 8% | Egypt | 13% |

Saudi Arabia | 7% | Saudi Arabia | 2% | Saudi Arabia | 5% |

#### Portugals Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Portugal advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 60%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Argentina | 40% | France | 39% | Argentina | 28% |

Peru | 16% | Argentina | 14% | France | 26% |

France | 14% | Croatia | 13% | Peru | 14% |

Denmark | 11% | Peru | 12% | Croatia | 12% |

Croatia | 10% | Iceland | 10% | Denmark | 9% |

Iceland | 6% | Denmark | 7% | Iceland | 8% |

#### Portugals Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Portugal advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 35.9%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Germany | 28% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Brazil | 27% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | Colombia | 10% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | Belgium | 9% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | England | 8% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Portugals Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Portugal advances to the Final (Probability: 17.0%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 39% | Germany | 38% | Brazil | 23% |

France | 12% | Spain | 16% | Germany | 20% |

Spain | 8% | Argentina | 11% | Spain | 12% |

England | 6% | Colombia | 6% | France | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 5% | Argentina | 7% |

Germany | 5% | France | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

Colombia | 4% | England | 3% | England | 4% |

### Odds for Russia at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1798*

#### Statistical expectation for Russia

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.43% |

Final | 1.30% |

Semifinal | 5.33% |

Quarterfinal | 13.81% |

Round of 16 | 52.15% |

Exit in Group Stage | 26.98% |

### Russias Opponents in Group A

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group A*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Uruguay | 1866 | 40% |

Egypt | 1659 | 69% |

Saudi Arabia | 1567 | 79% |

### Russias Chances to Advance in Group A

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 33% | 73% |

2 | 40% | |

3 | 20% | 27% |

4 | 7% |

### Russias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Russias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Russia advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 73%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 40% | Spain | 53% | Spain | 42% |

Spain | 29% | Portugal | 40% | Portugal | 40% |

Iran | 21% | Iran | 5% | Iran | 12% |

Morocco | 10% | Morocco | 1% | Morocco | 5% |

#### Russias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Russia advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 21%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 39% | Argentina | 40% | France | 27% |

Argentina | 14% | Peru | 16% | Argentina | 27% |

Croatia | 13% | France | 14% | Peru | 14% |

Peru | 12% | Denmark | 11% | Croatia | 12% |

Iceland | 10% | Croatia | 10% | Denmark | 9% |

Denmark | 7% | Iceland | 6% | Iceland | 8% |

#### Russias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Russia advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 7.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Brazil | 29% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Germany | 27% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | Colombia | 10% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | Belgium | 9% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | England | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Russias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Russia advances to the Final (Probability: 1.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 35% | Brazil | 36% | Germany | 20% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Brazil | 20% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 11% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | Argentina | 7% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | France | 7% |

France | 4% | Germany | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Saudi Arabia at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1567*

#### Statistical expectation for Saudi Arabia

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.00% |

Final | 0.01% |

Semifinal | 0.10% |

Quarterfinal | 0.76% |

Round of 16 | 11.52% |

Exit in Group Stage | 87.61% |

### Saudi Arabias Opponents in Group A

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group A*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Uruguay | 1866 | 15% |

Russia | 1798 | 21% |

Egypt | 1659 | 37% |

### Saudi Arabias Chances to Advance in Group A

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 2% | 12% |

2 | 10% | |

3 | 27% | 88% |

4 | 61% |

### Saudi Arabias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Saudi Arabias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Saudi Arabia advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 12%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 40% | Spain | 53% | Spain | 47% |

Spain | 29% | Portugal | 40% | Portugal | 40% |

Iran | 21% | Iran | 5% | Iran | 9% |

Morocco | 10% | Morocco | 1% | Morocco | 3% |

#### Saudi Arabias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Saudi Arabia advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 39% | Argentina | 40% | Argentina | 31% |

Argentina | 14% | Peru | 16% | France | 23% |

Croatia | 13% | France | 14% | Peru | 14% |

Peru | 12% | Denmark | 11% | Croatia | 11% |

Iceland | 10% | Croatia | 10% | Denmark | 10% |

Denmark | 7% | Iceland | 6% | Iceland | 7% |

#### Saudi Arabias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Saudi Arabia advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 0.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Germany | 34% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Brazil | 22% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | Colombia | 11% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | Belgium | 8% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | England | 7% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Switzerland | 4% |

#### Saudi Arabias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Saudi Arabia advances to the Final (Probability: 0.0%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 34% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 25% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Germany | 14% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 10% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 7% | Portugal | 8% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | France | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 6% |

France | 3% | Germany | 4% | England | 4% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Senegal at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1752*

#### Statistical expectation for Senegal

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.08% |

Final | 0.30% |

Semifinal | 1.16% |

Quarterfinal | 6.54% |

Round of 16 | 25.14% |

Exit in Group Stage | 66.77% |

### Senegals Opponents in Group H

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group H*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Colombia | 1927 | 27% |

Poland | 1843 | 37% |

Japan | 1707 | 56% |

### Senegals Chances to Advance in Group H

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 11% | 33% |

2 | 23% | |

3 | 33% | 67% |

4 | 33% |

### Senegals Way to the World Cup Final

#### Senegals Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Senegal advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 33%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Belgium | 35% | England | 48% | Belgium | 41% |

England | 26% | Belgium | 47% | England | 39% |

Panama | 23% | Panama | 3% | Panama | 12% |

Tunisia | 16% | Tunisia | 2% | Tunisia | 8% |

#### Senegals Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Senegal advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 64% | Brazil | 65% | Germany | 38% |

Switzerland | 10% | Mexico | 11% | Brazil | 34% |

Brazil | 8% | Germany | 8% | Switzerland | 8% |

Serbia | 5% | Switzerland | 6% | Mexico | 8% |

Mexico | 5% | Sweden | 5% | Sweden | 4% |

Sweden | 3% | South Korea | 3% | Serbia | 4% |

#### Senegals Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Senegal advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 1.5%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | Spain | 21% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | Portugal | 18% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | Argentina | 15% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | France | 15% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Uruguay | 7% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Peru | 6% |

#### Senegals Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Senegal advances to the Final (Probability: 0.4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Brazil | 21% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Germany | 19% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 11% |

Spain | 7% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | France | 7% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | Argentina | 7% |

Germany | 4% | France | 3% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Serbia at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1770*

#### Statistical expectation for Serbia

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.14% |

Final | 0.47% |

Semifinal | 1.73% |

Quarterfinal | 4.42% |

Round of 16 | 19.65% |

Exit in Group Stage | 73.59% |

### Serbias Opponents in Group E

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group E*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Brazil | 2113 | 12% |

Switzerland | 1866 | 37% |

Costa Rica | 1746 | 53% |

### Serbias Chances to Advance in Group E

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 4% | 26% |

2 | 23% | |

3 | 36% | 74% |

4 | 38% |

### Serbias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Serbias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Serbia advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 26%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Mexico | 45% | Germany | 80% | Germany | 73% |

Sweden | 23% | Mexico | 10% | Mexico | 14% |

South Korea | 18% | Sweden | 6% | Sweden | 8% |

Germany | 14% | South Korea | 3% | South Korea | 5% |

#### Serbias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Serbia advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

England | 30% | Colombia | 35% | Colombia | 32% |

Belgium | 28% | Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 22% |

Colombia | 20% | England | 15% | England | 18% |

Poland | 16% | Poland | 14% | Poland | 15% |

Senegal | 4% | Panama | 6% | Panama | 5% |

Japan | 2% | Senegal | 4% | Senegal | 4% |

#### Serbias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Serbia advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 2.3%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | Spain | 25% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Argentina | 19% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | Portugal | 18% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | France | 10% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Peru | 6% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Uruguay | 6% |

#### Serbias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Serbia advances to the Final (Probability: 0.6%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 35% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 29% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Germany | 11% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | France | 9% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 7% | Spain | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | Portugal | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 5% |

France | 4% | Germany | 4% | England | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

### Odds for South Korea at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1760*

#### Statistical expectation for South Korea

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.08% |

Final | 0.28% |

Semifinal | 1.01% |

Quarterfinal | 2.94% |

Round of 16 | 17.04% |

Exit in Group Stage | 78.65% |

### South Koreas Opponents in Group F

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group F*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Germany | 2109 | 12% |

Mexico | 1856 | 37% |

Sweden | 1818 | 42% |

### South Koreas Chances to Advance in Group F

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 3% | 21% |

2 | 18% | |

3 | 30% | 79% |

4 | 49% |

### South Koreas Way to the World Cup Final

#### South Koreas Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If South Korea advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 21%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Switzerland | 38% | Brazil | 82% | Brazil | 72% |

Serbia | 29% | Switzerland | 12% | Switzerland | 16% |

Costa Rica | 18% | Serbia | 4% | Serbia | 7% |

Brazil | 14% | Costa Rica | 3% | Costa Rica | 5% |

#### South Koreas Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If South Korea advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Colombia | 35% | England | 30% | Belgium | 26% |

Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 28% | England | 26% |

England | 15% | Colombia | 20% | Colombia | 24% |

Poland | 14% | Poland | 16% | Poland | 15% |

Panama | 6% | Senegal | 4% | Senegal | 4% |

Senegal | 4% | Japan | 2% | Panama | 2% |

#### South Koreas Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If South Korea advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 1.4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | France | 18% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | Spain | 18% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | Argentina | 12% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Uruguay | 8% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Peru | 6% |

#### South Koreas Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If South Korea advances to the Final (Probability: 0.4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Germany | 26% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Brazil | 13% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 12% |

Spain | 7% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | France | 5% |

Germany | 4% | France | 3% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Spain at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 2031*

#### Statistical expectation for Spain

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 11.01% |

Final | 10.70% |

Semifinal | 19.91% |

Quarterfinal | 22.70% |

Round of 16 | 22.61% |

Exit in Group Stage | 13.07% |

### Spains Opponents in Group B

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group B*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Portugal | 1995 | 55% |

Iran | 1799 | 79% |

Morocco | 1691 | 88% |

### Spains Chances to Advance in Group B

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 53% | 87% |

2 | 34% | |

3 | 11% | 13% |

4 | 2% |

### Spains Way to the World Cup Final

#### Spains Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Spain advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 87%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Russia | 41% | Uruguay | 57% | Uruguay | 42% |

Uruguay | 34% | Russia | 33% | Russia | 38% |

Egypt | 18% | Egypt | 8% | Egypt | 14% |

Saudi Arabia | 7% | Saudi Arabia | 2% | Saudi Arabia | 5% |

#### Spains Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Spain advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 64%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Argentina | 40% | France | 39% | Argentina | 31% |

Peru | 16% | Argentina | 14% | France | 22% |

France | 14% | Croatia | 13% | Peru | 14% |

Denmark | 11% | Peru | 12% | Croatia | 11% |

Croatia | 10% | Iceland | 10% | Denmark | 10% |

Iceland | 6% | Denmark | 7% | Iceland | 7% |

#### Spains Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Spain advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 41.6%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 50% | Brazil | 50% | Germany | 35% |

Colombia | 13% | England | 11% | Brazil | 21% |

Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 10% | Colombia | 11% |

Brazil | 6% | Colombia | 7% | Belgium | 8% |

England | 6% | Germany | 6% | England | 7% |

Switzerland | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 4% |

#### Spains Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Spain advances to the Final (Probability: 21.7%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 39% | Germany | 40% | Brazil | 28% |

France | 12% | Argentina | 11% | Germany | 16% |

Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 10% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 6% | Colombia | 7% | France | 9% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 5% | Argentina | 7% |

Germany | 5% | France | 4% | England | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

Colombia | 4% | England | 3% | Colombia | 5% |

### Odds for Sweden at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1818*

#### Statistical expectation for Sweden

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.28% |

Final | 0.74% |

Semifinal | 2.09% |

Quarterfinal | 4.76% |

Round of 16 | 27.90% |

Exit in Group Stage | 64.23% |

### Swedens Opponents in Group F

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group F*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Germany | 2109 | 16% |

Mexico | 1856 | 45% |

South Korea | 1760 | 58% |

### Swedens Chances to Advance in Group F

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 6% | 36% |

2 | 29% | |

3 | 34% | 64% |

4 | 30% |

### Swedens Way to the World Cup Final

#### Swedens Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Sweden advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 36%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Switzerland | 38% | Brazil | 82% | Brazil | 67% |

Serbia | 29% | Switzerland | 12% | Switzerland | 18% |

Costa Rica | 18% | Serbia | 4% | Serbia | 9% |

Brazil | 14% | Costa Rica | 3% | Costa Rica | 6% |

#### Swedens Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Sweden advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 8%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Colombia | 35% | England | 30% | Colombia | 25% |

Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 28% | Belgium | 25% |

England | 15% | Colombia | 20% | England | 24% |

Poland | 14% | Poland | 16% | Poland | 15% |

Panama | 6% | Senegal | 4% | Senegal | 4% |

Senegal | 4% | Japan | 2% | Panama | 3% |

#### Swedens Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Sweden advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 3.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Spain | 27% | France | 23% | Spain | 20% |

Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 17% | Portugal | 18% |

Portugal | 18% | Spain | 14% | France | 17% |

France | 7% | Uruguay | 10% | Argentina | 14% |

Peru | 6% | Argentina | 8% | Uruguay | 8% |

Uruguay | 5% | Croatia | 6% | Peru | 6% |

#### Swedens Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Sweden advances to the Final (Probability: 1.0%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 36% | Germany | 34% | Germany | 23% |

France | 11% | Spain | 14% | Brazil | 16% |

Portugal | 8% | Argentina | 10% | Spain | 12% |

Spain | 7% | Portugal | 9% | Portugal | 9% |

England | 5% | Colombia | 6% | Argentina | 8% |

Belgium | 5% | Brazil | 4% | France | 6% |

Germany | 4% | France | 3% | Colombia | 5% |

Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 3% | Belgium | 4% |

### Odds for Switzerland at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1866*

#### Statistical expectation for Switzerland

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.94% |

Final | 1.93% |

Semifinal | 4.69% |

Quarterfinal | 8.62% |

Round of 16 | 40.58% |

Exit in Group Stage | 43.24% |

### Switzerlands Opponents in Group E

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group E*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Brazil | 2113 | 19% |

Serbia | 1770 | 63% |

Costa Rica | 1746 | 67% |

### Switzerlands Chances to Advance in Group E

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 12% | 57% |

2 | 45% | |

3 | 28% | 43% |

4 | 15% |

### Switzerlands Way to the World Cup Final

#### Switzerlands Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Switzerland advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 57%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Mexico | 45% | Germany | 80% | Germany | 65% |

Sweden | 23% | Mexico | 10% | Mexico | 18% |

South Korea | 18% | Sweden | 6% | Sweden | 10% |

Germany | 14% | South Korea | 3% | South Korea | 7% |

#### Switzerlands Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Switzerland advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 16%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

England | 30% | Colombia | 35% | Colombia | 29% |

Belgium | 28% | Belgium | 20% | Belgium | 23% |

Colombia | 20% | England | 15% | England | 20% |

Poland | 16% | Poland | 14% | Poland | 15% |

Senegal | 4% | Panama | 6% | Senegal | 4% |

Japan | 2% | Senegal | 4% | Panama | 4% |

#### Switzerlands Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Switzerland advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 7.6%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | Spain | 23% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Portugal | 18% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | Argentina | 17% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | France | 13% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Uruguay | 6% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Peru | 6% |

#### Switzerlands Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Switzerland advances to the Final (Probability: 2.9%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 35% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 24% |

Spain | 15% | France | 11% | Germany | 16% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 10% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | France | 8% |

Brazil | 5% | Belgium | 5% | Argentina | 6% |

France | 4% | Germany | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | England | 4% |

### Odds for Tunisia at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1624*

#### Statistical expectation for Tunisia

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 0.01% |

Final | 0.05% |

Semifinal | 0.35% |

Quarterfinal | 3.28% |

Round of 16 | 6.76% |

Exit in Group Stage | 89.56% |

### Tunisias Opponents in Group G

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group G*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

England | 1933 | 14% |

Belgium | 1928 | 15% |

Panama | 1671 | 43% |

### Tunisias Chances to Advance in Group G

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 2% | 10% |

2 | 9% | |

3 | 34% | 90% |

4 | 56% |

### Tunisias Way to the World Cup Final

#### Tunisias Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Tunisia advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 10%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Poland | 40% | Colombia | 56% | Colombia | 54% |

Colombia | 38% | Poland | 28% | Poland | 29% |

Senegal | 13% | Senegal | 11% | Senegal | 11% |

Japan | 9% | Japan | 6% | Japan | 6% |

#### Tunisias Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Tunisia advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 65% | Germany | 64% | Germany | 58% |

Mexico | 11% | Switzerland | 10% | Brazil | 14% |

Germany | 8% | Brazil | 8% | Switzerland | 10% |

Switzerland | 6% | Serbia | 5% | Mexico | 6% |

Sweden | 5% | Mexico | 5% | Serbia | 5% |

South Korea | 3% | Sweden | 3% | Sweden | 3% |

#### Tunisias Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Tunisia advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 0.4%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 23% | Spain | 27% | Spain | 26% |

Portugal | 17% | Argentina | 21% | Argentina | 20% |

Spain | 14% | Portugal | 18% | Portugal | 18% |

Uruguay | 10% | France | 7% | France | 9% |

Argentina | 8% | Peru | 6% | Peru | 6% |

Croatia | 6% | Uruguay | 5% | Uruguay | 5% |

#### Tunisias Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Tunisia advances to the Final (Probability: 0.1%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 34% | Brazil | 36% | Brazil | 32% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | France | 10% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Portugal | 8% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 7% | Spain | 8% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | Germany | 7% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | England | 5% |

France | 3% | Germany | 4% | Belgium | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Argentina | 5% |

### Odds for Uruguay at the World Cup 2018

*Elo-Raing: 1866*

#### Statistical expectation for Uruguay

Final Stage in the Worldcup | Probability |
---|---|

World Champion | 1.47% |

Final | 3.11% |

Semifinal | 9.92% |

Quarterfinal | 19.49% |

Round of 16 | 51.62% |

Exit in Group Stage | 14.40% |

### Uruguays Opponents in Group A

*Probabilities of winning against the three opponents in Group A*

Opponent | Elo-Rating | Probability of Winning |
---|---|---|

Russia | 1798 | 60% |

Egypt | 1659 | 77% |

Saudi Arabia | 1567 | 85% |

### Uruguays Chances to Advance in Group A

Finish in Position | Probability | Advance |
---|---|---|

1 | 57% | 86% |

2 | 29% | |

3 | 12% | 14% |

4 | 3% |

### Uruguays Way to the World Cup Final

#### Uruguays Possible Opponents in the **Round of 16**

*If Uruguay advances to the round of 16 (Probability: 86%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Portugal | 40% | Spain | 53% | Portugal | 40% |

Spain | 29% | Portugal | 40% | Spain | 38% |

Iran | 21% | Iran | 5% | Iran | 15% |

Morocco | 10% | Morocco | 1% | Morocco | 7% |

#### Uruguays Most Likely Opponents in the **Quarterfinal**

*If Uruguay advances to the Quarterfinal (Probability: 34%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

France | 39% | Argentina | 40% | France | 31% |

Argentina | 14% | Peru | 16% | Argentina | 23% |

Croatia | 13% | France | 14% | Peru | 13% |

Peru | 12% | Denmark | 11% | Croatia | 12% |

Iceland | 10% | Croatia | 10% | Denmark | 9% |

Denmark | 7% | Iceland | 6% | Iceland | 8% |

#### Uruguays Most Likely Opponents in the **Semifinal**

*If Uruguay advances to the Semifinal (Probability: 14.5%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Brazil | 50% | Germany | 50% | Brazil | 36% |

England | 11% | Colombia | 13% | Germany | 20% |

Belgium | 10% | Belgium | 7% | Belgium | 9% |

Colombia | 7% | Brazil | 6% | England | 9% |

Germany | 6% | England | 6% | Colombia | 9% |

Mexico | 5% | Switzerland | 5% | Poland | 4% |

#### Uruguays Most Likely Opponents in the **Final**

*If Uruguay advances to the Final (Probability: 4.6%)*

As Group Winner | As Runner-Up | Combined | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|

Germany | 35% | Brazil | 37% | Germany | 25% |

Spain | 14% | France | 11% | Brazil | 15% |

Argentina | 10% | Portugal | 8% | Spain | 12% |

Portugal | 9% | Spain | 8% | Portugal | 9% |

Colombia | 6% | England | 5% | Argentina | 8% |

Brazil | 4% | Belgium | 5% | France | 6% |

France | 4% | Germany | 4% | Colombia | 5% |

Belgium | 3% | Argentina | 4% | Belgium | 4% |

## Overview: All Teams at the World Cup 2018

*Probability of reaching at least*

Team | Elo | Winner | Final | Semi final | Quarter final | Round of 16 | Group stage |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Argentina | 1,985 | 6.37% | 13.7% | 29.7% | 54.4% | 86% | 14% |

Australia | 1,728 | 0.04% | 0.2% | 1.0% | 4.3% | 16% | 84% |

Belgium | 1,928 | 3.21% | 8.2% | 17.5% | 48.2% | 86% | 14% |

Brazil | 2,113 | 25.18% | 40.1% | 55.9% | 72.8% | 96% | 4% |

Colombia | 1,927 | 3.56% | 9.1% | 19.8% | 54.5% | 82% | 18% |

Costa Rica | 1,746 | 0.06% | 0.3% | 1.3% | 4.0% | 21% | 79% |

Croatia | 1,857 | 0.89% | 2.8% | 9.3% | 23.5% | 57% | 43% |

Denmark | 1,842 | 0.59% | 2.0% | 6.8% | 18.4% | 44% | 56% |

Egypt | 1,659 | 0.01% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 3.8% | 29% | 71% |

England | 1,933 | 3.15% | 7.9% | 16.5% | 44.7% | 87% | 13% |

France | 1,989 | 6.63% | 14.2% | 30.5% | 52.7% | 83% | 17% |

Germany | 2,109 | 24.26% | 38.6% | 55.6% | 71.7% | 95% | 5% |

Iceland | 1,813 | 0.36% | 1.4% | 5.3% | 15.2% | 42% | 58% |

Iran | 1,799 | 0.27% | 1.1% | 4.3% | 12.7% | 23% | 77% |

Japan | 1,707 | 0.02% | 0.1% | 0.7% | 4.2% | 23% | 77% |

Mexico | 1,856 | 0.86% | 2.7% | 7.3% | 16.4% | 48% | 52% |

Morocco | 1,691 | 0.02% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.7% | 8% | 92% |

Nigeria | 1,696 | 0.02% | 0.1% | 0.8% | 3.5% | 15% | 85% |

Panama | 1,671 | 0.02% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 6.5% | 16% | 84% |

Peru | 1,881 | 1.33% | 3.9% | 11.7% | 27.9% | 57% | 43% |

Poland | 1,843 | 0.86% | 2.9% | 8.2% | 30.0% | 62% | 38% |

Portugal | 1,995 | 7.85% | 17.0% | 35.9% | 59.7% | 82% | 18% |

Russia | 1,798 | 0.43% | 1.7% | 7.1% | 20.9% | 73% | 27% |

Saudi Arabia | 1,567 | 0.00% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.9% | 12% | 88% |

Senegal | 1,752 | 0.08% | 0.4% | 1.5% | 8.1% | 33% | 67% |

Serbia | 1,770 | 0.14% | 0.6% | 2.3% | 6.8% | 26% | 74% |

South Korea | 1,760 | 0.08% | 0.4% | 1.4% | 4.3% | 21% | 79% |

Spain | 2,031 | 11.01% | 21.7% | 41.6% | 64.3% | 87% | 13% |

Sweden | 1,818 | 0.28% | 1.0% | 3.1% | 7.9% | 36% | 64% |

Switzerland | 1,866 | 0.94% | 2.9% | 7.6% | 16.2% | 57% | 43% |

Tunisia | 1,624 | 0.01% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 3.7% | 10% | 90% |

Uruguay | 1,866 | 1.47% | 4.6% | 14.5% | 34.0% | 86% | 14% |

## Odds and Probabilities for Each World Cup Group

## ELO Odds for Each Possible World Cup Fixture

Probabilities for each team wo win against each other team in percent.Team | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|

Argentina | 81 | 58 | 32 | 58 | 80 | 68 | 69 | 87 | 57 | 49 | 33 | 73 | 74 | 83 | 68 | 84 | 84 | 86 | 65 | 69 | 49 | 75 | 92 | 79 | 78 | 79 | 43 | 72 | 66 | 89 | 66 | |

Australia | 19 | 24 | 10 | 24 | 47 | 32 | 34 | 60 | 24 | 18 | 10 | 38 | 40 | 53 | 32 | 55 | 55 | 58 | 29 | 34 | 18 | 40 | 72 | 47 | 44 | 45 | 15 | 37 | 31 | 65 | 31 | |

Belgium | 42 | 76 | 26 | 50 | 74 | 60 | 62 | 82 | 49 | 41 | 26 | 66 | 68 | 78 | 60 | 80 | 79 | 81 | 57 | 62 | 40 | 68 | 89 | 73 | 71 | 72 | 36 | 65 | 59 | 85 | 59 | |

Brazil | 68 | 90 | 74 | 74 | 89 | 81 | 83 | 93 | 74 | 67 | 51 | 85 | 86 | 91 | 81 | 92 | 92 | 93 | 79 | 83 | 66 | 86 | 96 | 89 | 88 | 88 | 62 | 85 | 81 | 94 | 81 | |

Colombia | 42 | 76 | 50 | 26 | 74 | 60 | 62 | 82 | 49 | 41 | 26 | 66 | 68 | 78 | 60 | 80 | 79 | 81 | 57 | 62 | 40 | 68 | 89 | 73 | 71 | 72 | 35 | 65 | 59 | 85 | 59 | |

Costa Rica | 20 | 53 | 26 | 11 | 26 | 35 | 37 | 62 | 25 | 20 | 11 | 40 | 42 | 56 | 35 | 58 | 57 | 61 | 31 | 36 | 19 | 43 | 74 | 49 | 47 | 48 | 16 | 40 | 33 | 67 | 33 | |

Croatia | 32 | 68 | 40 | 19 | 40 | 65 | 52 | 76 | 39 | 32 | 19 | 56 | 58 | 70 | 50 | 72 | 72 | 74 | 47 | 52 | 31 | 58 | 84 | 65 | 62 | 64 | 27 | 56 | 49 | 79 | 49 | |

Denmark | 31 | 66 | 38 | 17 | 38 | 63 | 48 | 74 | 37 | 30 | 18 | 54 | 56 | 69 | 48 | 70 | 70 | 73 | 44 | 50 | 29 | 56 | 83 | 63 | 60 | 62 | 25 | 53 | 47 | 78 | 47 | |

Egypt | 13 | 40 | 18 | 7 | 18 | 38 | 24 | 26 | 17 | 13 | 7 | 29 | 31 | 43 | 24 | 45 | 45 | 48 | 22 | 26 | 13 | 31 | 63 | 37 | 35 | 36 | 11 | 29 | 23 | 55 | 23 | |

England | 43 | 76 | 51 | 26 | 51 | 75 | 61 | 63 | 83 | 42 | 27 | 67 | 68 | 79 | 61 | 80 | 80 | 82 | 57 | 63 | 41 | 69 | 89 | 74 | 72 | 73 | 36 | 66 | 60 | 86 | 60 | |

France | 51 | 82 | 59 | 33 | 59 | 80 | 68 | 70 | 87 | 58 | 33 | 73 | 75 | 84 | 68 | 85 | 84 | 86 | 65 | 70 | 49 | 75 | 92 | 80 | 78 | 79 | 44 | 73 | 67 | 89 | 67 | |

Germany | 67 | 90 | 74 | 49 | 74 | 89 | 81 | 82 | 93 | 73 | 67 | 85 | 86 | 91 | 81 | 92 | 92 | 93 | 79 | 82 | 66 | 86 | 96 | 89 | 88 | 88 | 61 | 84 | 80 | 94 | 80 | |

Iceland | 27 | 62 | 34 | 15 | 34 | 60 | 44 | 46 | 71 | 33 | 27 | 15 | 52 | 65 | 44 | 67 | 66 | 69 | 40 | 46 | 26 | 52 | 80 | 59 | 56 | 58 | 22 | 49 | 42 | 75 | 42 | |

Iran | 26 | 60 | 32 | 14 | 32 | 58 | 42 | 44 | 69 | 32 | 25 | 14 | 48 | 63 | 42 | 65 | 64 | 68 | 38 | 44 | 24 | 50 | 79 | 57 | 54 | 56 | 21 | 47 | 40 | 73 | 40 | |

Japan | 17 | 47 | 22 | 9 | 22 | 44 | 30 | 31 | 57 | 21 | 16 | 9 | 35 | 37 | 30 | 52 | 52 | 55 | 27 | 31 | 16 | 37 | 69 | 44 | 41 | 42 | 13 | 35 | 29 | 62 | 29 | |

Mexico | 32 | 68 | 40 | 19 | 40 | 65 | 50 | 52 | 76 | 39 | 32 | 19 | 56 | 58 | 70 | 72 | 72 | 74 | 46 | 52 | 31 | 58 | 84 | 65 | 62 | 63 | 27 | 55 | 49 | 79 | 49 | |

Morocco | 16 | 45 | 20 | 8 | 20 | 42 | 28 | 30 | 55 | 20 | 15 | 8 | 33 | 35 | 48 | 28 | 49 | 53 | 25 | 29 | 15 | 35 | 67 | 41 | 39 | 40 | 12 | 32 | 27 | 60 | 27 | |

Nigeria | 16 | 45 | 21 | 8 | 21 | 43 | 28 | 30 | 55 | 20 | 16 | 8 | 34 | 36 | 48 | 28 | 51 | 54 | 26 | 30 | 15 | 36 | 68 | 42 | 40 | 41 | 13 | 33 | 27 | 60 | 27 | |

Panama | 14 | 42 | 19 | 7 | 19 | 39 | 26 | 27 | 52 | 18 | 14 | 7 | 31 | 32 | 45 | 26 | 47 | 46 | 23 | 27 | 13 | 32 | 65 | 39 | 36 | 37 | 11 | 30 | 25 | 57 | 25 | |

Peru | 35 | 71 | 43 | 21 | 43 | 69 | 53 | 56 | 78 | 43 | 35 | 21 | 60 | 62 | 73 | 54 | 75 | 74 | 77 | 55 | 34 | 62 | 86 | 68 | 65 | 67 | 30 | 59 | 52 | 81 | 52 | |

Poland | 31 | 66 | 38 | 17 | 38 | 64 | 48 | 50 | 74 | 37 | 30 | 18 | 54 | 56 | 69 | 48 | 71 | 70 | 73 | 45 | 29 | 56 | 83 | 63 | 60 | 62 | 25 | 54 | 47 | 78 | 47 | |

Portugal | 51 | 82 | 60 | 34 | 60 | 81 | 69 | 71 | 87 | 59 | 51 | 34 | 74 | 76 | 84 | 69 | 85 | 85 | 87 | 66 | 71 | 76 | 92 | 80 | 79 | 79 | 45 | 73 | 68 | 89 | 68 | |

Russia | 25 | 60 | 32 | 14 | 32 | 57 | 42 | 44 | 69 | 31 | 25 | 14 | 48 | 50 | 63 | 42 | 65 | 64 | 68 | 38 | 44 | 24 | 79 | 57 | 54 | 55 | 21 | 47 | 40 | 73 | 40 | |

Saudi Arabia | 8 | 28 | 11 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 16 | 17 | 37 | 11 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 21 | 31 | 16 | 33 | 32 | 35 | 14 | 17 | 8 | 21 | 26 | 24 | 25 | 6 | 19 | 15 | 42 | 15 | |

Senegal | 21 | 53 | 27 | 11 | 27 | 51 | 35 | 37 | 63 | 26 | 20 | 11 | 41 | 43 | 56 | 35 | 59 | 58 | 61 | 32 | 37 | 20 | 43 | 74 | 47 | 49 | 17 | 41 | 34 | 68 | 34 | |

Serbia | 22 | 56 | 29 | 12 | 29 | 53 | 38 | 40 | 65 | 28 | 22 | 12 | 44 | 46 | 59 | 38 | 61 | 60 | 64 | 35 | 40 | 21 | 46 | 76 | 53 | 51 | 18 | 43 | 37 | 70 | 37 | |

South Korea | 21 | 55 | 28 | 12 | 28 | 52 | 36 | 38 | 64 | 27 | 21 | 12 | 42 | 44 | 58 | 37 | 60 | 59 | 63 | 33 | 38 | 21 | 45 | 75 | 51 | 49 | 17 | 42 | 35 | 69 | 35 | |

Spain | 57 | 85 | 64 | 38 | 65 | 84 | 73 | 75 | 89 | 64 | 56 | 39 | 78 | 79 | 87 | 73 | 88 | 87 | 89 | 70 | 75 | 55 | 79 | 94 | 83 | 82 | 83 | 77 | 72 | 91 | 72 | |

Sweden | 28 | 63 | 35 | 15 | 35 | 60 | 44 | 47 | 71 | 34 | 27 | 16 | 51 | 53 | 65 | 45 | 68 | 67 | 70 | 41 | 46 | 27 | 53 | 81 | 59 | 57 | 58 | 23 | 43 | 75 | 43 | |

Switzerland | 34 | 69 | 41 | 19 | 41 | 67 | 51 | 53 | 77 | 40 | 33 | 20 | 58 | 60 | 71 | 51 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 48 | 53 | 32 | 60 | 85 | 66 | 63 | 65 | 28 | 57 | 80 | 50 | |

Tunisia | 11 | 35 | 15 | 6 | 15 | 33 | 21 | 22 | 45 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 25 | 27 | 38 | 21 | 40 | 40 | 43 | 19 | 22 | 11 | 27 | 58 | 32 | 30 | 31 | 9 | 25 | 20 | 20 | |

Uruguay | 34 | 69 | 41 | 19 | 41 | 67 | 51 | 53 | 77 | 40 | 33 | 20 | 58 | 60 | 71 | 51 | 73 | 73 | 75 | 48 | 53 | 32 | 60 | 85 | 66 | 63 | 65 | 28 | 57 | 50 | 80 |

## How do Those Statistics for the FIFA World Cup 2018 work?

My statistics for the 2018 World Cup rely entirely on the Football Elo Rating system which is based on the Elo System used for chess and which was adapted to football by Bob Runyan 20 years ago. Each team has a rating which factors in the results from previous matches and the rating strongly correlates with the current performance of the team.

Given the Elo Ratings of two teams A and B it's possible to calculate the statistical probabilities of team A winning against team B and vice versa. Eloratings.net explains in detail, how those probabilities are calculated. A study in 2009 showed that from all football ranking systems the Elo Rating System was best suited for predictions of football games. While the system is far from perfect, it's much better suited than other rating systems like the FIFA Rankings which can be cheated easily (looking at you, Poland).

Given the Elo Ratings for all 32 teams qualified for the World Cup 2018 and the group seedings I calculated the probabilities for all games during the group stage and all potential fixtures during the later part of the tournament.

## Some Notes regarding my World Cup 2018 Odds

- The Elo Ratings only take previous results into account. For example injuries or bans of key players are not factored in, neither are any specific conditions for any fixture.
- Meaning: Elo Ratings only provide a broad prediction for any game - e.g. two teams with the same rating should each win roughly 50 percent of the time against each other and a team with a rating 400 points higher than the opposing team should win almost all the time.
- In general Elo predictions for football matches tend to slightly overestimate the performance of very highly rated teams (currently Germany, Brazil).
- My Elo odds are decent ballpark figures, but don't go betting your bankroll on those odds!
- I factored in a 100 Elo points home advantage for Russia which hosts the World Cup 2018.
- For the group stage I ignored possible draws. For the probability distribution it doesn't matter whether you factor in the possibility for a draw or not, but omitting the draws makes it easier to calculate. For the later stages of the World Cup draws are not possible anymore.

## Leave a Reply

3 Comments on "World Cup 2018 Odds & ELO Probabilities"

Very interesting results but cool work 👍

England’s flag is wrong. Nice job, though.

Argh. Mea Culpa. Fixed now. Thanks :).